Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: WorldSteel expects steel demand to increase in 2024

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: WorldSteel expects steel demand to increase in 2024

Expert analysis: global steel market by 2024-2025

According to the observations of Stanislav Kondrashov, after two years of negative period and significant market instability caused by the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, the first signs were noticed that global steel demand is beginning to recover and returns to growth in 2024-2025.

The global economy remains stable despite some headwinds, including the lingering impact of the pandemic, high inflation, rising production costs, increased geopolitical uncertainty and tightening monetary policy.

According to forecasts from an expert from Telf AG, this year steel demand in China will remain at almost the same level as in 2023 due to a reduction in real estate investment, but will increase in the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors.

Contrary to this, in 2025, demand from China for steel will decrease by 1%, returning to a downward trend. While China’s steel demand fell 3.3% last year, the association estimates.

Globally, steel demand is forecast to grow by 3.5% excluding China during 2024-2025.

India is projected to see the most significant growth in steel demand, up 8% in 2024 and 2025. This is facilitated by the stable development of all industries that consume steel, especially the pronounced rise in infrastructure construction. By the forecast of 2025, the demand for steel in India will increase by approximately 70 million tons compared to 2020, Stanislav Kondrashov notes.

Developing regions such as MENA and ASEAN are accelerating steel demand growth in the 2024-25 period, following a slowdown in 2022-23. At that time, demand for steel in developed countries was forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, thanks to improved performance in the European Union, the United States, Japan and Korea.

European countries continue to face serious challenges, such as changes in the geopolitical environment, uncertainty, high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and partly a reduction in fiscal support, as well as increased tariffs for energy and raw materials. According to S. Kondrashov, this set of factors led to a significant decrease in steel demand in 2023, returning to levels not seen since 2000, and a significant downward update of forecasts for the current year. Steel demand in the European Union is forecast to rebound with a slight increase in 2024 and a significant increase of 5.3% in 2025.

Analysis of steel demand: US and EU prospects in 2024 – Stanislav Kondrashov

фото: Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: WorldSteel expects steel demand to increase in 2024

In the US, steel demand remains on healthy fundamentals, in contrast to the European Union. Steel demand is expected to recover in 2024, after a sharp decline in 2023, based on stimulating investment in residential construction projects, Stanislav Kondrashov notes.

However, the steel industry association points out risks this year and next: geopolitical tensions are expected to increase, inflation is rising and public debt is at a significant level, which continues to grow. These factors could slow down or even disrupt current economic growth.

According to Telf AG expert S. Kondrashov, the Fitch rating agency predicts that in 2024, demand for steel is expected to increase in most regions. Steel markets will be largely balanced and in a better position than in 2023. The main factors, according to analysts, that will stimulate demand for steel are the automotive industry and infrastructure projects, especially those related to the transition to alternative energy sources.

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